Prediction of COVID-19 Patients at High Risk of Progression to Severe Disease.

In order to develop a novel scoring model for the prediction of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients at high risk of severe disease, we retrospectively studied 419 patients from five hospitals in Shanghai, Hubei, and Jiangsu Provinces from January 22 to March 30, 2020. Multivariate Cox regression and orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) were both used to identify high-risk factors for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. The prediction model was developed based on four high-risk factors. Multivariate analysis showed that comorbidity [hazard ratio (HR) 3.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96-5.11], albumin (ALB) level (HR 3.67, 95% CI 1.91-7.02), C-reactive protein (CRP) level (HR 3.16, 95% CI 1.68-5.96), and age ≥60 years (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.43-3.73) were independent risk factors for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. OPLS-DA identified that the top five influencing parameters for COVID-19 severity were CRP, ALB, age ≥60 years, comorbidity, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level. When incorporating the above four factors, the nomogram had a good concordance index of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83-0.89) and had an optimal agreement between the predictive nomogram and the actual observation with a slope of 0.95 (R2 = 0.89) in the 7-day prediction and 0.96 (R2 = 0.92) in the 14-day prediction after 1,000 bootstrap sampling. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the COVID-19-American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.90). According to the probability of severity, the model divided the patients into three groups: low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. The COVID-19-AACC model is an effective method for clinicians to screen patients at high risk of severe disease.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 70 cases of coronavirus disease and concomitant hepatitis B virus infection: A multicentre descriptive study.

The interaction between existing chronic liver diseases caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and COVID-19 has not been studied. We analysed 70 COVID-19 cases combined with HBV infection (CHI) to determine the epidemiological, clinical characteristics, treatment and outcome. We investigated clinical presentation, imaging and laboratory parameters of COVID-19 patients of seven hospitals from Jan 20 to March 20, 2020. Multivariate analysis was used to analyse risk factors for progression of patients with COVID-19 combined with HBV infection. Compared with COVID-19 without HBV infection (WHI) group, patients with dual infection had a higher proportion of severe/critically ill disease (32.86% vs. 15.27%, P = .000), higher levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST) and activated partial thromboplastin (APTT) [50(28-69)vs 21(14-30), P = .000; 40(25-54) vs 23(18-30), P = .000; 34.0(27.2-38.7) vs 37.2(31.1-41.4), P = .031]. The utilization rates of Arbidol and immunoglobulin were significantly higher than those in the co-infected group [48.57% vs. 35.64%, P < .05; 21.43% vs. 8.18%, P < .001], while the utilization rate of chloroquine phosphate was lower (1.43% vs 14.00%, P < .05) in the co-infected patients group. Age and c-reactive protein (CRP) level were independent risk factors for recovery of patients with COVID-19 combined with HBV infection. The original characteristics of COVID-19 cases combined with HBV infection were higher rate of liver injury, coagulation disorders, severe/critical tendency and increased susceptibility. The elderly and patients with higher level of CRP were more likely to experience a severe outcome of COVID-19.

Recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid positive test in patients with COVID-19: a report of two cases.

BACKGROUND: The recurrence of positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test results in patients with COVID-19 is becoming more important and warrants more attention. CASE PRESENTATION: This study reports 2 cases, a child with mild COVID-19 and an adult female with moderate COVID-19, who were discharged after three consecutive negative nucleic acid tests and were later readmitted to the hospital for recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid positivity. By tracking the patients' symptoms, serum antibodies, and imaging manifestations after readmission, we found that they showed a trend of gradual improvement and recovery throughout treatment. They were cured without additional treatment, with the appearance of antibodies and the recovery of immune functions. CONCLUSIONS: It is deemed extremely necessary to improve the discharge standard of care. At the same time, nucleic acid detection is recommended to increase the dynamic monitoring of serum antibodies and imaging, strengthen the management of discharged patients, and appropriately extend the home or centralized isolation time.

Clinical Characteristics of Imported Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Jiangsu Province: A Multicenter Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to report the clinical characteristics of imported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Jiangsu Province. METHODS: We retrospectively investigated the clinical, imaging, and laboratory characteristics of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with World Health Organization interim guidance in 3 grade IIIA hospitals of Jiangsu from 22 January to 14 February 2020. Real-time RT-PCR was used to detect the new coronavirus in respiratory samples. RESULTS: Of the 80 patients infected with COVID-19, 41 were female, with a median age of 46.1 years. Except for 3 severe patients, the rest of the 77 patients exhibited mild or moderate symptoms. Nine patients were unconfirmed until a third nucleic acid test; 38 cases had a history of chronic diseases. The main clinical manifestations of the patients were fever and cough, which accounted for 63 (78.75%) and 51 (63.75%) cases, respectively. Only 3 patients (3.75%) showed liver dysfunction. Imaging examination showed that 55 patients (68.75%) showed abnormal density shadow and 25 cases (31.25%) had no abnormal density shadow in the parenchyma of both lungs. Currently, 21 cases have been discharged from the hospital, and no patient died. The average length of stay for discharged patients was 8 days. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the cases in Wuhan, the cases in Jiangsu exhibited mild or moderate symptoms and no obvious gender susceptibility. The proportion of patients having liver dysfunction and abnormal CT imaging was relatively lower than that in Wuhan. Notably, infected patients may be falsely excluded based on 2 consecutively negative respiratory pathogenic nucleic acid test results.